Can the pandemic revive San Francisco?

Future thinking on the economic impact of COVID-19

I graduated college in 2008, into one of the worst economies seen in my lifetime. Many new grads found themselves with freshly minted degrees and a mountain of student debt with little job prospects. Long-standing businesses were upended, early retirements were forced, and whatever version of “stable” the average American household felt was no longer. You remember.

But difficult as it was, the Great Recession also spawned something pretty incredible. We saw the rise of the Etsy entrepreneur as side hustles turned into full time businesses and creative hobbies became sustainable sources of income. We experienced a cultural return to simplicity and thriftiness (sometimes forced, sometimes chosen) over excessive consumption. Craft— an ability to do something skillful with one’s hands, to create from scratch rather than “throw money at the problem”— found renewed value. I don’t mean to romanticize the moment — these changes were born out of necessity and came at a cost. But I admire the resourcefulness and adaptability of individuals and society — and our collective ability to adapt and meet the moment.

Right now, we are far from economic recovery; it’s clear the pandemic has upended the economy and will have lasting effects, and we don’t even know the extent of the damage yet. Eventually (sooner rather than later, one hopes), we’ll inch our way out of it. When we do, what changes will we see? How will we adapt this time around? Like before, we get to reinvent what it means to create, work, play, and consume, and ultimately redefine what we value after an economic downturn like the one we are entering now. What we can learn from this moment and how we might even seed changes for the better? Here are a few areas I see as ripe for a post-pandemic revival in San Francisco. (These may apply to other major cities, too.)

FOOD

It should come as no surprise that restaurants today are struggling— many will go out of business or have already. When enough businesses leave (by choice or by force), commercial rents drop, and eventually new businesses will take their place. No one wants to see restaurants go out of business, and yet, there may be a benefit to this process — a healthy reset, if you will. I think of San Francisco, where I spent the last seven years, and — don’t hate me for saying this — how monotonous the dining scene had become. Yes, it is delicious in a classic California farm-to-table kind of way. But increasingly, restaurants in the city hewed too closely to the playbook: the same “brass and fern” decor, overpriced vegetarian dishes, and tastefully generic menus ( pricey bread made with heirloom flour from that one spot everyone loves, of-the-season mushrooms and greens you’ll aspire to forage on your own after that one meal, fresh donuts dipped in some sauce or other, and the like) that scratch all the itches for the local technorati without asking us to broaden our horizons or explore beyond our comfort zones. Don’t get me wrong — this kind of California cuisine is popular for a reason. It is tasty and impressive and an homage to the region’s fresh, local produce and high quality ingredients.

But the best food in the city (IMHO), actually comes from the unassuming Ethiopian, Thai, Arabic, and Vietnamese restaurants that thrive on takeout orders, delivery, and lunch specials. (These are the same businesses, by the way, that are best suited to support Friday night dinners “out” during a pandemic — they have mastered how to deliver your food so that it’s still delicious by the time it arrives— unlike some of the fancier restaurants throwing their hat into the delivery ring for the first time, whose made-for-table-dining dishes often arrive wilted, sad, and soggy.)  Many of these restaurants, pre-pandemic, were operating on borrowed time: So long as they had a favorable lease (likely signed years before the last tech boom), they could make it work. If not, they were on their way to being priced out of the Bay Area — forced to leave or prevented from breaking ground at all.

So I can’t help but wonder: Could the pandemic be the great equalizer that eventually brings these high-quality, low-budget restaurants back? Might we see a renaissance of creative, inexpensive, casual dining in San Francisco? Will we stop paying $8 for a (super yummy but let’s be honest it’s still just bread) piece of toast? If so, I’m for it. 

CULTURE

People say that cities are dying — that the pandemic is doing them in.  In the Bay Area, many techies are leaving because they can work remotely indefinitely and want more space, have childcare help elsewhere and need the support, or because they have little personal attachment to the region now that they are not commuting into the office. (I count myself in this group of San Francisco departures — we just temporarily relocated to Santa Fe, NM to be closer to family and live in a place big enough for the baby to have his own room.)

Some people are upset that those who can afford to move are leaving, abandoning cities when they need us the most. Empty buildings and devalued real estate, less disposable income circulating in the local economy, and a drop in the city’s highest income tax earners raises challenges, no doubt about it.

But maybe this mini tech migration out of the Bay is a good thing, because San Francisco was becoming a monoculture. When the only people who can afford to stay all work, live, and play together, it’s easy for restaurants, shops, and bars to cater exclusively to them. When every real estate listing goes to a bidding war between all-cash buyers, it’s going to be impossible to maintain any modicum of economic and racial diversity in a neighborhood. When a large majority of your residents spend their days shuttling to an office hours away, it’s going to be difficult to keep them civically engaged and participating in the true fabric of the city. (I don’t mean to suggest that no tech workers are invested in San Francisco — of course, some are. But many are just passing through and dropping cash and Patagonia jackets as they do.)

That’s why I feel hopeful about a revival for San Francisco. As more techies leave the city, rents are finally dropping. If they drop enough, perhaps the artists, community organizers, and teachers pushed out of the city can find their way back into it. Maybe the people most invested in the city in heart and spirit will be able to afford to invest in it with their wallets. Eventually tech workers will return to the city (tech jobs and whatnot). The real test will be if we can find a better balance this time. Can San Francisco can help its non-tech residents thrive again? Might we have a healthier city overall by the time the next tech migration to SF picks up? Here’s hoping. 

TECH

Tech is not dead, but it does need reviving. What will tech’s next wave of companies and products look like? We will likely see a shift to more enterprise and work-from-home technology because that’s where all our time is going, and what so many companies are making a bet on as the “future of work”. It’s a good step beyond social media, but what more can we do? We need more companies working on improving unsexy but essential basics like access to healthcare, banking products that work across income brackets, and easier to use local government websites. We need more products that enable and value artistry and creative pursuits and fewer mind-numbing games, apps, and endless-scroll technology. To get there, we need more funding going to startups in these areas—  even if they aren’t going to provide an exponential return for their investors. (An uphill battle, but morals and values still exist… right?) And we need more tech employees investing their time, energy, and talents into these kinds of companies instead of chasing the next IPO. As someone who has worked at more than one social media/social media adjacent company, it is not lost on me that I am part of the problem. I, like the rest of the tech industry, can do better. 

ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Life moments like an economic downturn are ripe for self-reflection. When shit hits the fan you can either throw up your hands or roll up your sleeves. What people create will depend on what skill sets they dust off the shelf, along with what we as consumers value. I love hearing about stay-at-home moms who became the sole breadwinners of the family by starting a quilting business no one saw coming, because they had to. Or when a teacher’s side hustle creating curriculums to make ends meet becomes a major source of income. Though the circumstances that spur this kind of entrepreneurship are certainly trying, the results are inspiring — they show that creativity, hustle, and hidden talents can still make an impact, and that society can still agree to value the unique skills of individuals, not just the convenience of giant companies firmly rooted in our society.

POLITICS

If enough liberal young things move to places we never thought we’d live because we want more space, access to nature, or a stronger support circle for our growing families, might we collectively turn reddish cities and states blue? Or, will we cling to our old lives and former selves, hold out for the possibility that our moves are merely temporary, send in our absentee votes, and keep the political map as is once more? If it’s too late to make changes for this upcoming election, will we leave it at that, or go out of our way to become involved in other local policies, politics, and the like in the places we’ve relocated to and now call home?

Change is coming to San Francisco and cities like it. The question is when and how.

What did I miss? What else is ripe for reinvention?